Russia has intensified covert efforts to undermine the leader of Armenia’s bid for re-election next month, fearing his victory could lock in the former Soviet republic’s realignment with the West, according to Western intelligence and government officials, Reuters reports.
A landlocked nation of 3 million people, Armenia has mostly remained in Moscow’s orbit since the Cold War and hosts Russian troops. But Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who is leading in the polls, has moved closer to Europe and NATO, emerging as an ally of U.S. President Donald Trump, who on Wednesday endorsed Pashinyan’s re-election bid.
Russian President Vladimir Putin has made no secret of his displeasure at Pashinyan’s pivot. In recent days, Moscow has warned that Armenia risked forfeiting cheap natural gas supplies and it restricted imports of Armenian products including fruit, vegetables, flowers and brandy. "What Pashinyan is trying to do is a threat to Russia,” said Thomas de Waal, senior fellow with Carnegie Europe. Diversification “means Russia loses the virtual monopoly it’s had in Armenia.”
Moscow’s preferred candidate, three of the Western officials said, is Samvel Karapetyan, a billionaire on trial for allegedly calling for the overthrow of the government. Karapetyan, who is Armenian-Russian, denies the charges. His lawyer, Robert Amsterdam, told Reuters his client had no knowledge of Russian support. In October, the Kremlin established a department known as the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership, which, four of the sources said, is overseeing influence operations in Armenia. The sources, like others in this story, spoke on condition of anonymity. Russian officials have in recent months discussed sending Russia-based Armenians to vote for Pashinyan's opponents, five of the sources said.
Armenians make up a large global diaspora, including a population in Russia that some estimates put at over 2 million. Armenians are not allowed to vote in elections from abroad. Russian authorities calculated a cost of about $50 million to transport 100,000 voters, three of the sources said. By mid-May, the Kremlin had issued quotas of Armenians each region should send and requested administrators report back on preparations, those officials added. Reuters was unable to establish whether such a plan was underway or whether it would be enough to close the wide gap between the frontrunners. A poll conducted earlier this month suggested Pashinyan's Civil Contract party will finish first with around 30% of the vote. At around 6%, the poll put Karapetyan's Strong Armenia party at a distant second in a crowded field.
