The crash of an Embraer 190-100 IGW passenger aircraft belonging to Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) in Kazakhstan on December 25, 2024, attracted significant public and international attention from the very first day.
By now, almost all key parties agree that the incident was not an ordinary technical accident.
Statements by state leaders as well as published official investigation documents indicate that the aircraft was subjected to an external armed impact — that is, it was shot down. This conclusion is reflected not only in political statements but also in technical and factual evidence and expert assessments.
In a preliminary report released by the Kazakhstan Ministry of Transport in February 2025, it was noted that the incident did not occur due to technical reasons. According to data read from the aircraft’s black boxes, both engines were operating steadily and normally until the moment of the crash. Airworthiness parameters were stable, and serious disruptions in control systems occurred only after external noises and impacts.
More importantly, numerous penetrating and non-penetrating damages were discovered on the aircraft’s fuselage, particularly in the rear section — on the stabilizers and some elements of the left wing. Metal fragments not belonging to the aircraft, recovered from the wreckage, have already been identified as concrete physical evidence. Official documents from state authorities contain no evidence of a bird strike or internal explosion. This effectively eliminates the possibility of a technical malfunction or accidental natural factor.
It was also noted that the loss of GPS signals, electronic warfare interference, and the subsequent staged system failures form a technical sequence indicating external interference.
The interim report announced by the Kazakh side on December 25, 2025 — the anniversary of the shootdown — further reinforced the conclusions outlined in the initial document. The report specifically states that oxygen cylinders and other internal equipment on the aircraft were not damaged, completely ruling out the version of an internal explosion.
It is also emphasized that metal fragments taken from the damaged sections of the aircraft may belong to a weapons system. Although the specific weapon model has not been disclosed, the structural characteristics of the fragments suggest that they are not random metallurgical debris but rather elements of military-grade ammunition. Laboratory examinations in this direction will form the core evidentiary base of the final report.
The shared position of experts from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Russia, and Brazil is also quite clear: the aircraft lost control and crashed not due to technical failure, but as a result of external interference — that is, being shot down.
Confidence in the aircraft being shot down is also evident in statements by heads of state.
The President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev, shortly after the incident, openly voiced the key point regarding what happened: the AZAL aircraft sustained external damage over Russian territory, near Grozny. According to the president, the aircraft’s control was first disrupted due to the impact of radio-electronic warfare systems. This caused the aircraft to deviate from normal flight mode and enter an unstable condition. Subsequently, as a result of ground fire, the aircraft’s rear section — particularly the vertical and horizontal stabilizers — was severely damaged.
Recalling the numerous holes and blind damages recorded on the fuselage, the head of state stated that initial assumptions such as a “bird strike” were completely unfounded.
Russian President Vladimir Putin also commented on the matter, drawing particular attention to the fact that the incident occurred in Russian airspace and expressing condolences to the families of the victims. He stated that comprehensive support would be provided to the investigation and that the Russian side was actively participating in the process. This statement can be interpreted as a political acknowledgment that the incident was extraordinary and resulted from external interference. It also forms a necessary political basis for shared responsibility and a transparent investigation.
Thus, statements by the leaders of both countries confirm the overall picture: the shootdown of a civilian aircraft is no longer merely a hypothesis, but a serious political and legal reality.
All these facts and statements lead to one conclusion: the shootdown of the AZAL civilian passenger aircraft is now a reality confirmed by official documents and declarations of state leaders.
