Hurricane Erin has strengthened into a powerful Category 4 storm, drenching Caribbean islands and threatening dangerous rip currents along the U.S. East Coast. The storm is also expected to expand in size.
In its latest advisory, the US National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Erin was packing maximum sustained winds of 220km/h while moving west-northwest at 16km/h, News.Az reports citing foreign media.
Its outer bands were forecast to bring localised downpours across Cuba and the Dominican Republic through Monday, as well as the Turks and Caicos and the Bahamas – where a tropical storm warning is in place – through Tuesday.
These areas could receive localised totals of up to 15cm of rain, according to the NHC.
In Puerto Rico, a US territory of more than three million people, weekend flooding swamped homes and roads in the island’s east, and widespread power outages left residents in the dark, though service has since been restored to more than 96% of customers.
Although Erin’s core will remain over the Atlantic as it begins curving northeast this week, “Erin is expected to grow rather dramatically in size,” warned NHC director Michael Brennan, stressing that peripheral impacts will be significant.
By Tuesday, the entire US East Coast will face a high risk of life-threatening surf and rip currents, which occur when channels of water surge away from the shore.
Coastal flooding, particularly along North Carolina’s Outer Banks, is expected to begin on Tuesday and peak on Wednesday into Thursday, with portions of highway at risk of ocean overwash. Evacuations have been ordered off two islands, Ocracoke and Hatteras.
Wave heights of 6-9m – at times exceeding 15m – will create treacherous marine conditions across the western Atlantic.
The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, has now entered its historical peak.
Despite a relatively quiet start with just four named storms so far, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) continues to forecast an “above-normal” season.
A typical season produces 14 named storms, of which seven become hurricanes and three strengthen into major hurricanes.
This year, tropical activity is expected to be elevated by a combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean, with an active West African monsoon, NOAA said.
Scientists broadly agree that human-driven climate change is amplifying tropical cyclones.
Warmer oceans release more water vapour, fuelling stronger winds, while a warmer atmosphere holds more moisture, intensifying rainfall.
Meanwhile, rising seas – already about 30cm higher than a century ago – mean cyclones are starting from a higher baseline, magnifying storm surges and coastal flooding.
