International rating agency Fitch Ratings has increased its average oil price forecast for 2026 by $7, APA-Economics reports, citing the rating agency.
The forecast for the average annual price of Brent crude has been raised from $63 to $70.
The agency notes that in the current baseline scenario, this increase does not have a significant impact on global economic forecasts. However, in an alternative scenario, risks are assessed as higher. Thus, a rise in oil prices to $100 and remaining at that level could create a serious supply shock for the global economy. In this case, global GDP is projected to decline by approximately 0.4% annually.
Fitch Ratings’ chief economist Brian Coulton stated that if the increase in oil prices is short-term, global economic growth will remain stable, but if prices stay at high levels, negative effects will intensify.
Note that rising oil prices increase energy costs, strengthen inflationary pressures, and may weaken economic activity. Fitch Ratings forecasts that global economic growth will decline from 2.7% last year to 2.6% in 2026.
