As the region gets closer to peace, Russia is reverting to a familiar strategy: deploying troops to exert its influence.
Russia's increasing military presence in Armenia has stirred considerable speculation in the region. According to Armenian media reports, the Russian 102nd military base in Gyumri has seen a notable influx of military equipment and ammunition in recent weeks. Cargo planes carrying supplies are reportedly landing on a near-daily basis. While Moscow has yet to clarify the purpose of these shipments, multiple theories have emerged — ranging from routine resupply to deeper strategic maneuvering.
What lies behind this growing military reinforcement? Could this be part of a broader plan to reassert influence in the South Caucasus or even a prelude to shaping Armenia’s domestic political landscape ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections? And how might this affect the already fragile peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan?
To explore these pressing questions, Azernews spoke to two prominent experts:
Heydar Mirza, military expert:
“Such information has indeed been circulating recently. At first, it came mostly from Ukrainian intelligence, which is normal — Ukrainian special services and Western allies are closely monitoring the strategic movements of the Russian Armed Forces. However, I personally do not know how accurate this information is. I think that our relevant bodies and diplomats have more accurate information about this. From the processes under consideration, it is felt that official Baku has taken this information into account and is paying attention, but I do not think that it poses a direct threat to Azerbaijan at the moment. If this issue is true, it will affect us more through things such as influencing the policy and public opinion of Armenia and even, perhaps, through an attempt to overthrow the government, negatively affecting the peace talks, but not directly.
I think that the most correct step would be to keep the issue in the spotlight and not to cause unnecessary panic. Undoubtedly, this affects us not directly, but indirectly — through Armenia. But this does not exclude the possibility that Russia will also launch direct influence mechanisms on us — these are different, for example, the issue of migrants, economic and trade instruments, etc. They have already been launched.”
Neil Watson, British journalist and political scientist:
“Russia’s recent bolstering of its longstanding 102nd military base in Gyumri, Armenia, including reported daily deliveries of military equipment and ammunition, is a development with several possible motivations.
Firstly, this may be a move to reassert Russian influence in the South Caucasus. Moscow’s standing in the region has visibly declined over the past three years, especially following the Azerbaijani victory in the Second Garabagh War, the expulsion of Russia from the Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks and Russian troops from their so-called ‘peacekeeping’ role, and Armenia’s anti-Russian and pro-Western stance under Prime Minister Pashinyan.
Russian–Azerbaijani relations have reached an all-time low since the downing of an AZAL aircraft on 25 December 2024. Strengthening the Gyumri base could be a form of military signalling, both to local actors and international observers, that Russia intends to remain a dominant security actor. There is also speculation that Russia may be attempting to influence Armenia’s domestic political scene ahead of next year’s parliamentary elections. By increasing its military footprint, Moscow could be positioning itself to apply covert or overt pressure on Yerevan to embolden pro-Russian elements within the Armenian political spectrum or diaspora, particularly against Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The deafening silence by the Armenian government on the arms deliveries suggests a desire to avoid open confrontation.
Russia may also be acting to deter further Western engagement in Armenia. The prospect of Western peacekeepers, EU missions, or deeper US-Armenia military ties is deeply unwelcome in Moscow. Russia is sending a message that it retains both the capability and intent to shape developments in this region, where it was previously dominant, which remains important, not least due to its natural resources. This military build-up could significantly complicate the fragile bilateral peace process between Armenia and Azerbaijan. It risks undermining Armenia’s credibility as an independent negotiating partner and may embolden hardliners on all sides. Baku will interpret the move as a provocation or an implicit threat. Furthermore, any perception that Russia is preparing for hybrid operations or regime manipulation would heighten political tensions and polarise public opinion within Armenia as the Azerbaijani-Armenian peace negotiations reach their climax, possibly derailing the signing of a peace treaty.”
